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Given the productivity nirvana-unlocking potential of AI and the attendant soaring energy demands from data centers, nuclear fission players – particularly those trying to commercialize Small Nuclear Reactors (SMRs) – continue to receive dramatically concentrated attention from markets and investors alike. Even so, Sam Altman-backed Oklo stands apart from its cohorts for the quantum of attention it has recently garnered. Today, that attention is being spurred by Kerrisdale Capital, a short research firm with a checkered history.
We’re short $OKLO. Report at https://t.co/IJ16XlZqog. $OKLO’s claimed unit economics are nonsensical, its mgmt are academics with weak real world commercialization experience, its tech / engineering team dramatically trails peers and its projected timelines are laughable 1/7
— Kerrisdale Capital (TradFi) (@KerrisdaleCap) November 20, 2024
To wit, Kerrisdale Capital has now published its short research report against Oklo, alleging:
- The company suffers from a “fundamental lack of design readiness and commercially nonviable unproven reactors.”
- Despite Oklo’s viability assumptions of acquiring HALEU – uranium enriched at a low level and which serves as the primary fuel source for SMRs – at $7 per kg, Kerrisdale believes that a $30,000 per kg price tag appears more realistic.
- Oklo’s “timeline of deploying its first reactor by 2027 is a pipedream.”
- Sodium-cooled reactors, which are Oklo’s preferred design choice, have a history of reliability problems.
- With “years of cash burn before any revenue let alone profit, dilutive capital raises are likely.”
- The company previously failed to gain regulatory approval for a 1.5 MW reactor.
For the benefit of those who might not be aware, SMRs pair high energy densities with a reliable, zero-carbon power output, making them ideal for data centers. Like all fission reactors, SMRs use a controlled nuclear chain reaction to produce steam that then drives turbines. Increasingly, companies are adopting liquid metals as coolants and, in line with this trend, Oklo has chosen to commercialize a sodium-cooled reactor design.
As stated earlier, most SMRs require low-enriched uranium (HALEU) as the primary fuel, which is in short supply at the moment, given the sanctions on Russia.
Shorting the company where Trump’s Energy Secretary is a board member? Thank you for the short squeeze https://t.co/S2DiHdnjoT
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 20, 2024
Coming back, Oklo’s share price has rocketed in recent days, spurred by the fact that Trump’s pick for the post of Energy Secretary in the incoming administration is also an Oklo board member, which should theoretically expedite the regulatory approval process for the company.
Let’s not forget their MSTR short https://t.co/C0KEx1iCXq
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 20, 2024
Also, Kerrisdale Capital has a checkered history of short attacks. The short research company has previously gone against MicroStrategy (MSTR), which is currently trading at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings, and Carvana.
At the time of writing, Oklo shares are down just around 3 percent. Year to date, the stock is up ~100 percent.
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